Research news - Met Office
Met Office research news highlights updates to modelling, innovative research activities, and studies that enhance our understanding of global and UK weather impacts.
www.metoffice.gov.ukEl Niño onset expected between June and August 2026, 80% probability reported by the WMO, signaling warmer global temperatures and increased severe weather risk. Europe and the UK experience a buckling jet stream bringing polar air southward, after a May heat dome, as record heat and moisture boost storm intensity. Such patterns increase drought risk in South Asia and stress energy grids and agriculture globally into late 2026. Close watching of worldwide meteorology remains crucial for preparedness across sectors.